Rundown on first CD22 "ten"acious forum

The Fort Bend GOP club held the first candidate forum last night since the filing deadline as well as the first to feature all 10 candidates vying to unseat Slick Nick Lampson.

The local media were there and covered the highlights here and here.

Bob Dunn over at Fort Bend Now seems to have it right that in such a crowded field, it's going to be difficult for candidates to stand out at forum events like this. That's why name ID (among GOP primary voters) and grassroots "rubber on the road" support is going to be key in this race.

Despite the late entry of Cynthia Dunbar (elected in 2006 to the State Board of Education and whose SBOE seat partially overlaps CD22) and a couple of other minor candidates, the front runners still appear to be Sekula Gibbs, Hrbacek, Talton and maybe Olson in that order. It's a mystery to many as to why Dunbar got into the race, especially since she is going through what may become a nasty divorce. If she had gotten into the race much sooner, she may have been a viable candidate. But, as it stands, most of those who might support her are already committed to other candidates (and many view her candidacy as simply a spoiler.)

The candidate filings are due January 15 and it will be very interesting to see how the various candidates are faring vis a vis fundraising -- that may help tell the tale. However, a couple of the late filers (Dunbar and Bazzy) won't have to file this go-around. We'll just have to guess at how their fundraising is going based on what kind of spending we see happening.

Gibbs has money and name ID -- but a lot of the name ID is negative which makes her assumption that she will win the primary outright (she's actually telling folks that) without a run-off comes across as more than just a little politically naive. Dunbar's entry into the race will likely hurt her -- for all those that want to empower women in the party but have been turned off by Gibbs. Still, we expect to see Gibbs at the top in the run-off. The probable race is who will earn the #2 spot for a chance to gather up all the run-off marbles.

Hrbacek has assembled the strongest grassroots support and rumor has it he's been amassing a sizeable army of volunteers who are actively campaigning door-to-door for him. He's the real "hometown" guy in the area of the district with the largest number of voters ( Ft Bend) and the best local name ID. If he can convert some of that support to cash contributions he still looks like the #2 guy to beat in this race.

Talton has a more natural base of support on the east side of the District (he's the State Rep from Pasadena). But he'll be splitting that with John Manlove (former Mayor of Pasadena). Niether candidate has any name ID on the west side. Both will have to spend heavily here to have an impact.

But that brings up the issue of how to spend the $$ for maximum impact... it's gong to be tough. Direct mail mainly winds up in the trash. TV and radio will be out of reach for most candidates (too expensive and won't be a lot of it available once the national and statewide campaigns start chomping up air time), local weekly newspapers are poorly read and unlikely vehicles for most involved voters trying to form an opinion.

That leaves personal endorsements, yard signs and grassroots word -of-mouth. The candidate(s) that are able to assemble the best network of volunteers and campaigners are the ones that will likely find the best success at the ballot box this March 4.