Roll Call prognostications

Roll Call (subscription only) weighs in on the CD22 race. They think Sekula-Gibbs will come in first in the Primary... but we're not so sure. We think there's a good chance she could finish second. Regardless, if Shelley is in the run-off with anyone else, we predict she loses. Here's Roll Call's take:

Republicans following the 22nd district primary are reasonably confident that Sekula Gibbs will finish first on March 4 and that either Hrbacek, Olson, Manlove or Talton will join her in the April runoff, they say the race remains hard to gauge, and they caution that the unexpected could easily occur."I think it will be a classic, late-decision campaign about who has the best chance of defeating Nick [Lampson]," said one GOP insider. "I don't think it will be one where he or she who has the best message or most money will win. It will be a confluence of events."

Although Sekula Gibbs lost her write-in bid for the 110th Congress, she won a special election that was held on the same day to serve out the remainder of DeLay's term. However, her relationship with DeLay's old staff and the Texas GOP delegation turned rancorous during her brief stint on Capitol hill. Consequently, a majority of the Texas GOP House delegation - as well as many 22nd district GOP insiders - prefer that one of her opponents win the primary and advance to the November general election against Lampson. Although internal Republican polls have shown Sekula Gibbs to have wide name recognition, those same surveys show her leading the field with slim support, as low as just above 20 percent.

Sekula Gibbs' personal negatives also are high, according to Republican strategists who are unaffiliated with any of her opponents but are familiar with the surveys in question.